01888nas a2200301 4500008004100000245004500041210004100086260001200127300001300139490000600152520103800158100001501196700002301211700002801234700002401262700002201286700002501308700001401333700002301347700002401370700002201394700002001416700002601436700001601462700002301478700001601501856006901517 2019 eng d00aThe polar regions in a 2°C warmer world0 apolar regions in a 2°C warmer world c12/2019 aeaaw98830 v53 a
Over the past decade, the Arctic has warmed by 0.75°C, far outpacing the global average, while Antarctic tem- peratures have remained comparatively stable. As Earth approaches 2°C warming, the Arctic and Antarctic may reach 4°C and 2°C mean annual warming, and 7°C and 3°C winter warming, respectively. Expected consequences of increased Arctic warming include ongoing loss of land and sea ice, threats to wildlife and traditional human livelihoods, increased methane emissions, and extreme weather at lower latitudes. With low biodiversity, Antarctic ecosystems may be vulnerable to state shifts and species invasions. Land ice loss in both regions will contribute substantially to global sea level rise, with up to 3 m rise possible if certain thresholds are crossed. Mitigation efforts can slow or reduce warming, but without them northern high latitude warming may accelerate in the next two to four decades. International cooperation will be crucial to foreseeing and adapting to expected changes.
1 aPost, Eric1 aAlley, Richard, B.1 aChristensen, Torben, R.1 aMacias-Fauria, Marc1 aForbes, Bruce, C.1 aGooseff, Michael, N.1 aIler, Amy1 aKerby, Jeffrey, T.1 aLaidre, Kristin, L.1 aMann, Michael, E.1 aOlofsson, Johan1 aStroeve, Julienne, C.1 aUlmer, Fran1 aVirginia, Ross, A.1 aWang, Muyin uhttp://advances.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aaw9883