TY - JOUR T1 - Modeling present and future ice covers in two Antarctic lakes JF - Journal of Glaciology Y1 - 2020 A1 - Echeverría, Sebastián A1 - Hausner, Mark B. A1 - Bambach, Nicolás A1 - Vicuña, Sebastián A1 - Suárez, Francisco KW - climate change KW - energy balance KW - ice and climate KW - ice-sheet modeling KW - lake ice AB -

Antarctic lakes with perennial ice covers provide the opportunity to investigate in-lake processes without direct atmospheric interaction, and to study their ice-cover sensitivity to climate condi- tions. In this study, a numerical model – driven by radiative, atmospheric and turbulent heat fluxes from the water body beneath the ice cover – was implemented to investigate the impact of climate change on the ice covers from two Antarctic lakes: west lobe of Lake Bonney (WLB) and Crooked Lake. Model results agreed well with measured ice thicknesses of both lakes (WLB – RMSE= 0.11 m over 16 years of data; Crooked Lake – RMSE= 0.07 m over 1 year of data), and had acceptable results with measured ablation data at WLB (RMSE= 0.28 m over 6 years). The differences between measured and modeled ablation occurred because the model does not consider interannual variability of the ice optical properties and seasonal changes of the lake’s thermal structure. Results indicate that projected summer air temperatures will increase the ice-cover annual melting in WLB by 2050, but that the ice cover will remain peren- nial through the end of this century. Contrarily, at Crooked Lake the ice cover becomes ephem- eral most likely due to the increase in air temperatures.

VL - 66 UR - https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-glaciology/article/modeling-present-and-future-ice-covers-in-two-antarctic-lakes/9306439ADD5492BC05F3BAF0E076B1C3 IS - 255 ER -