@article {4447,
	title = {Modeling present and future ice covers in two Antarctic lakes},
	journal = {Journal of Glaciology},
	volume = {66},
	year = {2020},
	month = {02/2020},
	abstract = {<p>Antarctic lakes with perennial ice covers provide the opportunity to investigate in-lake processes without direct atmospheric interaction, and to study their ice-cover sensitivity to climate condi- tions. In this study, a numerical model \&ndash; driven by radiative, atmospheric and turbulent heat fluxes from the water body beneath the ice cover \&ndash; was implemented to investigate the impact of climate change on the ice covers from two Antarctic lakes: west lobe of Lake Bonney (WLB) and Crooked Lake. Model results agreed well with measured ice thicknesses of both lakes (WLB \&ndash; RMSE= 0.11 m over 16 years of data; Crooked Lake \&ndash; RMSE= 0.07 m over 1 year of data), and had acceptable results with measured ablation data at WLB (RMSE= 0.28 m over 6 years). The differences between measured and modeled ablation occurred because the model does not consider interannual variability of the ice optical properties and seasonal changes of the lake\&rsquo;s thermal structure. Results indicate that projected summer air temperatures will increase the ice-cover annual melting in WLB by 2050, but that the ice cover will remain peren- nial through the end of this century. Contrarily, at Crooked Lake the ice cover becomes ephem- eral most likely due to the increase in air temperatures.</p>},
	keywords = {LTER-MCM, climate change, energy balance, ice and climate, ice-sheet modeling, lake ice},
	doi = {10.1017/jog.2019.78},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-glaciology/article/modeling-present-and-future-ice-covers-in-two-antarctic-lakes/9306439ADD5492BC05F3BAF0E076B1C3},
	author = {Echeverr{\'\i}a, Sebasti{\'a}n and Hausner, Mark B. and Bambach, Nicol{\'a}s and Vicu{\~n}a, Sebasti{\'a}n and Su{\'a}rez, Francisco}
}
