01525nas a2200145   4500008004100000245008300041210006900124260001200193490000800205520102800213100002201241700002101263700002101284856007401305       2019                        eng d00aPrediction of ice-free conditions for a perennially ice-covered Antarctic lake0 aPrediction of icefree conditions for a perennially icecovered An  c02/20190 v1243 a<p><span style="font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; font-size: 12pt;">Although perennially ice-covered Antarctic lakes have experienced variable ice thicknesses over the past several decades, future ice thickness trends and associated aquatic biological responses under projected global warming remain unknown. Heat stored in the water column in chemically stratified Antarctic lakes that have mid-depth temperature maxima, can significantly influence the ice thickness trends via upward heat flux to the ice/water interface. We modeled ice thickness of the west of lobe of Lake Bonney, Antarctica based on possible future climate scenarios utilizing a 1D thermodynamic model that accounts for surface radiative fluxes as well as the heat flux associated with the temperature evolution of the water column. Model results predict that the ice cover of Lake Bonney will shift from perennial to seasonal within one to four decades, a change that will drastically influence ecosystem processes within the lake.</span></p>1 aObryk, Maciek, K.1 aDoran, Peter, T.1 aPriscu, John, C.  uhttps://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018JF004756