02112nas a2200229   4500008004100000245006600041210006600107260001200173490000700185520130800192653001901500653001901519653002001538653002301558653001301581100002801594700002201622700002201644700002401666700002301690856016901713       2020                        eng d00aModeling present and future ice covers in two Antarctic lakes0 aModeling present and future ice covers in two Antarctic lakes  c02/20200 v663 a<p>Antarctic lakes with perennial ice covers provide the opportunity to investigate in-lake processes without direct atmospheric interaction, and to study their ice-cover sensitivity to climate condi- tions. In this study, a numerical model &ndash; driven by radiative, atmospheric and turbulent heat fluxes from the water body beneath the ice cover &ndash; was implemented to investigate the impact of climate change on the ice covers from two Antarctic lakes: west lobe of Lake Bonney (WLB) and Crooked Lake. Model results agreed well with measured ice thicknesses of both lakes (WLB &ndash; RMSE= 0.11 m over 16 years of data; Crooked Lake &ndash; RMSE= 0.07 m over 1 year of data), and had acceptable results with measured ablation data at WLB (RMSE= 0.28 m over 6 years). The differences between measured and modeled ablation occurred because the model does not consider interannual variability of the ice optical properties and seasonal changes of the lake&rsquo;s thermal structure. Results indicate that projected summer air temperatures will increase the ice-cover annual melting in WLB by 2050, but that the ice cover will remain peren- nial through the end of this century. Contrarily, at Crooked Lake the ice cover becomes ephem- eral most likely due to the increase in air temperatures.</p>10aclimate change10aenergy balance10aice and climate10aice-sheet modeling10alake ice1 aEcheverría, Sebastián1 aHausner, Mark, B.1 aBambach, Nicolás1 aVicuña, Sebastián1 aSuárez, Francisco  uhttps://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-glaciology/article/modeling-present-and-future-ice-covers-in-two-antarctic-lakes/9306439ADD5492BC05F3BAF0E076B1C3