04191nas a2200445 4500008004100000022001400041245005900055210005900114260001600173300001400189490000800203520302300211100002203234700001603256700001903272700001503291700001803306700002003324700001503344700001903359700001603378700001303394700001503407700001803422700001303440700002203453700001503475700001503490700002303505700001303528700001903541700001703560700001503577700001703592700001803609700002003627700001603647700002003663856006203683 2012 eng d a0036-807500aChallenges to the Future Conservation of the Antarctic0 aChallenges to the Future Conservation of the Antarctic cJan-07-2013 a158 - 1590 v3373 a

The Antarctic Treaty System, acknowledged as a successful model of cooperative regulation of one of the globe's largest commons (1), is under substantial pressure. Concerns have been raised about increased stress on Antarctic systems from global environmental change and growing interest in the region's resources (23). Although policy-makers may recognize these challenges, failure to respond in a timely way can have substantial negative consequences. We provide a horizon scan, a systematic means for identifying emerging trends and assisting decision-makers in identifying policies that address future challenges (23). Previous analyses of conservation threats in the Antarctic have been restricted to matters for which available evidence is compelling (4). We reconsider these concerns because they might escalate quickly, judging from recent rapid environmental change in parts of Antarctica and increasing human interest in the region (see the map). We then focus on a more distant time horizon.

1 aChown, Steven, L.1 aLee, J., E.1 aHughes, K., A.1 aBarnes, J.1 aBarrett, P.J.1 aBergstrom, D.M.1 aConvey, P.1 aCowan, Don, A.1 aCrosbie, K.1 aDyer, G.1 aFrenot, Y.1 aGrant, S., M.1 aHerr, D.1 aKennicutt, M., C.1 aLamers, M.1 aMurray, A.1 aPossingham, H., P.1 aReid, K.1 aRiddle, M., J.1 aRyan, P., G.1 aSanson, L.1 aShaw, J., D.1 aSparrow, M.D.1 aSummerhayes, C.1 aTerauds, A.1 aWall, Diana, H. uhttp://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.122282100563nas a2200169 4500008004100000245004600041210004600087260003400133100001700167700002800184700002400212700002100236700002000257700001800277700002000295856007800315 2006 eng d00aAntarctic lake systems and climate change0 aAntarctic lake systems and climate change aDordrecht, The NetherlandsbS1 aLyons, Berry1 aLaybourn-Parry, Johanna1 aWelch, Kathleen, A.1 aPriscu, John, C.1 aBergstrom, D.M.1 aConvey, Peter1 aHuiskes, A.H.L. uhttps://mcm.lternet.edu/content/antarctic-lake-systems-and-climate-change