Prediction of ice-free conditions for a perennially ice-covered Antarctic lake

TitlePrediction of ice-free conditions for a perennially ice-covered Antarctic lake
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2019
AuthorsObryk, MK, Doran, PT, Priscu, JC
JournalJournal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface
Date Published02/2019

Although perennially ice-covered Antarctic lakes have experienced variable ice thicknesses over the past several decades, future ice thickness trends and associated aquatic biological responses under projected global warming remain unknown. Heat stored in the water column in chemically stratified Antarctic lakes that have mid-depth temperature maxima, can significantly influence the ice thickness trends via upward heat flux to the ice/water interface. We modeled ice thickness of the west of lobe of Lake Bonney, Antarctica based on possible future climate scenarios utilizing a 1D thermodynamic model that accounts for surface radiative fluxes as well as the heat flux associated with the temperature evolution of the water column. Model results predict that the ice cover of Lake Bonney will shift from perennial to seasonal within one to four decades, a change that will drastically influence ecosystem processes within the lake.

Short TitleJ. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf.